Missouri State’s third-down conversion rate with Jmariyae Robinson and without Jmariyae Robinson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 1.3 percentage points under with Jmariyae Robinson and 10.5 percentage points under without Jmariyae Robinson over its last 21 games, 17 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.3% and 25.8%, a difference of 11.5%. All 10 home games were with Jmariyae Robinson. All 9 day games were with Jmariyae Robinson. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jmariyae Robinson.
Jmariyae Robinson, receiver: 1,030 receiving yards, 88 receptions and 8 receiving touchdowns in 19 of those 21 games.
2 games without Jmariyae Robinson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +9.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jmariyae Robinson vs without Jmariyae Robinson is about what you’d expect.
A +11.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jmariyae Robinson vs without Jmariyae Robinson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ USC | L | 21.4% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 43.8% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs SMU | L | 0.0% | 36.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 16.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 26.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | W | 42.9% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Florida International | W | 50.0% | 36.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 36.4% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 42.9% | 30.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 30.0% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 50.0% | 35.0% | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 53.3% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 44.4% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SMU | L | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | L | 26.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 50.0% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 36.4% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin, Lindenwood have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.