Missouri State’s third-down conversion rate with Jmariyae Robinson and without Jmariyae Robinson
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 1.6 percentage points under with Jmariyae Robinson and 9.5 percentage points under without Jmariyae Robinson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.8% and 25.0%, a difference of 13.8%. All 4 home games were with Jmariyae Robinson. Both day games were with Jmariyae Robinson. All 6 unranked opponents were with Jmariyae Robinson.
Jmariyae Robinson, receiver: 398 receiving yards, 44 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 7 games this season.
One game without Jmariyae Robinson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jmariyae Robinson
−1.6%
without Jmariyae Robinson
−9.5%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
38.8%
25.0%
20%40%
The games
with Jmariyae Robinsonwithout Jmariyae Robinson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 44.4% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 26.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 50.0% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 36.4% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.