Missouri State’s third-down conversion rate with Henry Belin IV and without Henry Belin IV
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 7.0 percentage points over with Henry Belin IV and 10.0 percentage points under without Henry Belin IV in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 45.5% and 32.0%, a difference of 13.5%. Both ranked opponents were without Henry Belin IV. All 4 nonconference games were without Henry Belin IV. All 4 first-half games were without Henry Belin IV.
Henry Belin IV, quarterback: 1,071 passing yards, 126 pass attempts and 85 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games with Henry Belin IV is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +17.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Henry Belin IV vs without Henry Belin IV is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Henry Belin IV and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A +13.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Henry Belin IV vs without Henry Belin IV is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 44.4% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 26.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 50.0% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 36.4% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.