Missouri State’s rushing yards with Henry Belin IV and without Henry Belin IV
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 19.9 yards under with Henry Belin IV and 14.4 yards under without Henry Belin IV over its last 21 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 115.7 and 136.8, a difference of 21.1. Both ranked opponents were without Henry Belin IV. All 4 nonconference games were without Henry Belin IV.
Henry Belin IV, quarterback: 1,071 passing yards, 126 pass attempts and 85 completions in 7 of those 21 games, 4% of Missouri State’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games with Henry Belin IV is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −5.5 difference in rushing yards over expected with Henry Belin IV vs without Henry Belin IV is about what you’d expect.
A −21.1 difference in rushing yards with Henry Belin IV vs without Henry Belin IV is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ USC | L | 65 | 82.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 91 | 105.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs SMU | L | 53 | 93.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 133 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 214 | 143.7 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 83 | 119.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | W | 126 | 129.9 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Florida International | W | 210 | 123.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 48 | 142.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 108 | 148.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 191 | 130.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 122 | 123.2 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 55 | 138.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 37 | 97.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 257 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 186 | 139.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SMU | L | 68 | 102.4 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | L | 136 | 145.3 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | W | 122 | 134.1 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 94 | 125.0 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 131 | 147.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 13 games in 2025 are neither with Henry Belin IV nor without Henry Belin IV: Henry Belin IV had no game for the team that season, and sit out.