Missouri State’s points of margin with Skyler Locklear and since Skyler Locklear’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 7.9 points under with Skyler Locklear and 4.6 points over since Skyler Locklear’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are -10.6 and 0.3, a difference of 10.9. Both ranked opponents were with Skyler Locklear. All 4 nonconference games were with Skyler Locklear. All 4 first-half games were with Skyler Locklear.
Skyler Locklear, quarterback: 788 passing yards, 108 pass attempts and 71 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Skyler Locklear’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −12.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Skyler Locklear vs since Skyler Locklear’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −10.9 difference in points of margin with Skyler Locklear vs since Skyler Locklear’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | -50 | -28.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | -6 | 0.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ SMU | L | -10 | -29.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | L | -21 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 3 | -5.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | -23 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 21 | -0.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.