Missouri State’s points of margin with Jmariyae Robinson and without Jmariyae Robinson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 6.2 points under with Jmariyae Robinson and 19.2 points over without Jmariyae Robinson in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -6.0 and -10.0, a difference of 4.0. Expected was 22.7 points higher with Jmariyae Robinson than without Jmariyae Robinson. All 4 home games were with Jmariyae Robinson. Both day games were with Jmariyae Robinson. All 6 unranked opponents were with Jmariyae Robinson.
Jmariyae Robinson, receiver: 398 receiving yards, 44 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 7 games this season.
One game without Jmariyae Robinson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jmariyae Robinson
−6.2
without Jmariyae Robinson
+19.2
-20020
plain
-6.0
-10.0
-500
The games
with Jmariyae Robinsonwithout Jmariyae Robinson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | -50 | -28.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | -6 | 0.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ SMU | L | -10 | -29.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | L | -21 | 2.2 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 3 | -5.2 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | -23 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 21 | -0.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.