Missouri State’s pass attempts with Henry Belin IV and without Henry Belin IV
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 0.6 pass attempts under with Henry Belin IV and 0.2 pass attempts over without Henry Belin IV in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 31.0 and 28.6, a difference of 2.4. Both ranked opponents were without Henry Belin IV. All 4 nonconference games were without Henry Belin IV. All 4 first-half games were without Henry Belin IV.
Henry Belin IV, quarterback: 1,071 passing yards, 126 pass attempts and 85 completions in 7 games this season, 58% of Missouri State’s pass attempts in those games.
3 games with Henry Belin IV is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −0.8 difference in pass attempts over expected with Henry Belin IV vs without Henry Belin IV is about what you’d expect.
A +2.4 difference in pass attempts with Henry Belin IV vs without Henry Belin IV is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 17 | 28.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 29 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 34 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 38 | 26.5 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 40 | 32.0 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 35 | 32.9 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 18 | 29.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.