Mississippi State’s points of margin with Isaac Smith and since Isaac Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 5.5 points over with Isaac Smith and 17.0 points under since Isaac Smith’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 4.0 and -18.0, a difference of 22.0. All 3 games while ranked were with Isaac Smith. Both nonconference games were with Isaac Smith. All 4 first-half games were with Isaac Smith.
Isaac Smith, defender: 5 games this season.
2 games since Isaac Smith’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +22.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Isaac Smith vs since Isaac Smith’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +22.0 difference in points of margin with Isaac Smith vs since Isaac Smith’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 49 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 25 | 0.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 7 | -13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 7 | -5.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | -33 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | -31 | -16.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | -8 | 7.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | -28 | -9.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.