Mississippi State’s points allowed with Isaac Smith and without Isaac Smith
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 1.3 points under with Isaac Smith and 5.6 points over without Isaac Smith over its last 25 games, 19 games against 5. The plain averages are 28.0 and 35.4, a difference of 7.4. All 3 games while ranked were with Isaac Smith. All 4 games after a bye were with Isaac Smith.
Isaac Smith, defender: 19 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Isaac Smith
−1.3
without Isaac Smith
+5.6
020
A −7.0 difference in points allowed over expected with Isaac Smith vs without Isaac Smith is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.0
35.4
02040
A −7.4 difference in points allowed with Isaac Smith vs without Isaac Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Isaac Smithwithout Isaac Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs UMass | W | 20 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 33 | 38.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Missouri | L | 39 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | 26 | 42.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 17 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 20 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 10 | 17.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 41 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 31 | 40.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 23 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas | L | 45 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 35 | 38.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 41 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 49 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 38 | 39.5 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | L | 43 | 25.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 13 | 11.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 13 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 34 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 56 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 31 | 38.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 23 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Texas | L | 31 | 30.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.