Mississippi State’s points allowed with Isaac Smith and since Isaac Smith’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 0.6 points over with Isaac Smith and 0.5 points over since Isaac Smith’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.5 and 27.0, a difference of 1.5. All 3 games while ranked were with Isaac Smith. Both nonconference games were with Isaac Smith. All 4 first-half games were with Isaac Smith.
Isaac Smith, defender: 5 games this season.
2 games since Isaac Smith’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +0.1 difference in points allowed over expected with Isaac Smith vs since Isaac Smith’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.5 difference in points allowed with Isaac Smith vs since Isaac Smith’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 13 | 11.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 13 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 34 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 56 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 31 | 38.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 23 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 31 | 30.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.