Middle Tennessee’s third-down conversion rate with Terrence Brown and without Terrence Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 7.1 percentage points under with Terrence Brown and 3.5 percentage points under without Terrence Brown over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.5% and 26.7%, a difference of 3.8%. Expected was 5.4 percentage points higher with Terrence Brown than without Terrence Brown. All 4 away games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 conference games were with Terrence Brown.
Terrence Brown, running back: 348 rushing yards, 54 carries and 26 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Terrence Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Terrence Brown
−7.1%
without Terrence Brown
−3.5%
-20%0%20%
plain
30.5%
26.7%
20%40%
The games
with Terrence Brownwithout Terrence Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 38.5% | 40.2% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UTEP | W | 23.1% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | 46.2% | 38.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | L | 50.0% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 35.7% | 36.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | L | 0.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 35.7% | 31.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 41.2% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | 30.0% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 28.6% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 43.8% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 42.9% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsJacksonville State | L | 43.8% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsFlorida International | L | 29.4% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 46.7% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 41.7% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @New Mexico State | W | 44.4% | 39.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Marshall | L | 25.0% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNevada | W | 26.7% | 30.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | 9.1% | 34.0% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsDelaware | W | 22.2% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @Florida International | W | 23.1% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | L | 55.0% | 34.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Terrence Brown nor without Terrence Brown: Terrence Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.