Middle Tennessee’s rushing yards with Terrence Brown and without Terrence Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 13.1 yards under with Terrence Brown and 42.9 yards over without Terrence Brown over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 145.6 and 160.0, a difference of 14.4. Expected was 33.1 yards higher with Terrence Brown than without Terrence Brown. All 4 away games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 conference games were with Terrence Brown.
Terrence Brown, running back: 348 rushing yards, 54 carries and 26 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 34% of Middle Tennessee’s rushing yards in those games.
One game without Terrence Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Terrence Brown
−13.1
without Terrence Brown
+42.9
-1000100
plain
145.6
160.0
100150200250
The games
with Terrence Brownwithout Terrence Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 68 | 128.3 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UTEP | W | 94 | 114.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | 88 | 114.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | L | 170 | 136.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 121 | 123.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | L | 44 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 33 | 53.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 105 | 101.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | 74 | 115.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 155 | 130.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 99 | 132.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 103 | 108.4 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsJacksonville State | L | 84 | 132.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsFlorida International | L | 33 | 146.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 152 | 137.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 194 | 166.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @New Mexico State | W | 199 | 113.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 196 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Marshall | L | 109 | 173.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNevada | W | 160 | 117.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 103 | 165.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | 56 | 164.0 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsDelaware | W | 107 | 164.5 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @Florida International | W | 251 | 88.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | L | 197 | 145.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Terrence Brown nor without Terrence Brown: Terrence Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.