Middle Tennessee’s points of margin with Terrence Brown and without Terrence Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 5.6 points under with Terrence Brown and 18.8 points over without Terrence Brown over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -7.6 and 7.0, a difference of 14.6. All 4 away games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 conference games were with Terrence Brown.
Terrence Brown, running back: 348 rushing yards, 54 carries and 26 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Terrence Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Terrence Brown
−5.6
without Terrence Brown
+18.8
-40-200
plain
-7.6
7.0
-40-20020
The games
with Terrence Brownwithout Terrence Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | -22 | -23.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ UTEP | W | 7 | -8.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Liberty | L | -20 | -9.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs New Mexico State | L | -15 | 5.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | -11 | -14.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsAAustin Peay | L | -20 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | -32 | -22.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 1 | -9.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Marshall | L | -14 | -4.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | -8 | -14.8 | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | -2 | -2.4 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | -3 | -6.9 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vsJacksonville State | L | -3 | -3.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsFlorida International | L | -26 | 2.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | -16 | -12.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 14 | 9.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @New Mexico State | W | 7 | -5.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Marshall | L | -2 | -5.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNevada | W | 7 | -11.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | -10 | -14.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | -55 | -12.8 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsDelaware | W | 3 | -4.0 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @Florida International | W | 3 | -11.2 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | L | -16 | 4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Terrence Brown nor without Terrence Brown: Terrence Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.