Middle Tennessee’s points allowed with Terrence Brown and without Terrence Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 4.2 points over with Terrence Brown and 12.1 points under without Terrence Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 31.0 and 20.0, a difference of 11.0. All 4 away games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 conference games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 second-half games were with Terrence Brown.
Terrence Brown, running back: 348 rushing yards, 54 carries and 26 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Terrence Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Terrence Brown
+4.2
without Terrence Brown
−12.1
-1001020
plain
31.0
20.0
2040
The games
with Terrence Brownwithout Terrence Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 28 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 20 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 23 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | 55 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Florida International | W | 23 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 44 | 21.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.