Middle Tennessee’s passing yards with Terrence Brown and without Terrence Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 7.2 yards under with Terrence Brown and 29.2 yards under without Terrence Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 202.0 and 173.0, a difference of 29.0. All 4 away games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 conference games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 second-half games were with Terrence Brown.
Terrence Brown, running back: 348 rushing yards, 54 carries and 26 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Terrence Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
with Terrence Brown
−7.2
without Terrence Brown
−29.2
-100-500
plain
202.0
173.0
100200
The games
with Terrence Brownwithout Terrence Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 200 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 243 | 219.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 173 | 202.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 216 | 171.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | 81 | 184.9 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 291 | 247.7 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Florida International | W | 200 | 197.0 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 183 | 236.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.