Middle Tennessee’s carries with Terrence Brown and without Terrence Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 3.6 carries under with Terrence Brown and 7.0 carries over without Terrence Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 27.7 and 36.0, a difference of 8.3. All 4 away games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 conference games were with Terrence Brown. All 4 second-half games were with Terrence Brown.
Terrence Brown, running back: 348 rushing yards, 54 carries and 26 receptions in 7 games this season, 28% of Middle Tennessee’s carries in those games.
One game without Terrence Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Terrence Brown
−3.6
without Terrence Brown
+7.0
-20-10010
plain
27.7
36.0
203040
The games
with Terrence Brownwithout Terrence Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 22 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 36 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 30 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | 15 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 23 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Florida International | W | 37 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 45 | 30.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.