Middle Tennessee’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Middle Tennessee was 4.5 points over at home and 6.0 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 31.5 and 16.3, a difference of 15.3.
points a game over expected
at home
+4.5
away
−6.0
-20-100
A +10.5 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
31.5
16.3
0102030
A +15.3 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Marshall | L | 26 | 23.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Nevada | W | 27 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 13 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kansas | L | 0 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vs Delaware | W | 33 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Florida International | W | 26 | 18.8 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 28 | 24.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.