Putting Up Numbers· college football

Michigan State’s total yards with Cam Edwards and since Cam Edwards’ last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 6.3 yards under with Cam Edwards and 49.8 yards under since Cam Edwards’ last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 323.5 and 259.8, a difference of 63.8. All 3 nonconference games were with Cam Edwards. All 4 first-half games were with Cam Edwards. All 4 second-half games were since Cam Edwards’ last game.

Cam Edwards, running back: 304 rushing yards, 64 carries and 4 receptions in 4 games this season.

total yards a game over expected

A +43.5 difference in total yards over expected with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is about what you’d expect.

A +63.8 difference in total yards with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Cam Edwardssince Cam Edwards’ last game
Michigan State’s games, 2026, each marked with Cam Edwards or since Cam Edwards’ last game
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Sep 4, 2026vsToledoW398374.3
Sep 12, 2026vsEastern MichiganW472394.2
Sep 19, 2026@Notre DameL167238.9
Sep 26, 2026vsNebraskaL257311.8
Oct 3, 2026@WisconsinL235253.4
Oct 10, 2026vsIllinoisL342351.1
Oct 17, 2026vsNorthwesternL305348.0
Oct 24, 2026@UCLAL157285.8

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Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.