Michigan State’s third-down conversion rate with Cam Edwards and since Cam Edwards’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 5.3 percentage points over with Cam Edwards and 6.6 percentage points under since Cam Edwards’ last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 43.5% and 32.7%, a difference of 10.7%. All 3 nonconference games were with Cam Edwards. All 4 first-half games were with Cam Edwards. All 4 second-half games were since Cam Edwards’ last game.
Cam Edwards, running back: 304 rushing yards, 64 carries and 4 receptions in 4 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +11.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +10.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 33.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 66.7% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 36.4% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | 37.5% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 27.8% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | 60.0% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 25.0% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 18.2% | 33.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.