Michigan State’s third-down conversion rate with Brandon Tullis and without Brandon Tullis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 0.5 percentage points under with Brandon Tullis and 1.3 percentage points under without Brandon Tullis in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.4% and 36.4%, a difference of 2.0%. All 5 home games were with Brandon Tullis. All 7 day games were with Brandon Tullis. All 5 unranked opponents were with Brandon Tullis.
Brandon Tullis, running back: 53 rushing yards, 11 carries and 1 reception in 4 games this season.
One game without Brandon Tullis is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Brandon Tullis
−0.5%
without Brandon Tullis
−1.3%
0%20%
plain
38.4%
36.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with Brandon Tulliswithout Brandon Tullis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 33.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 66.7% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 36.4% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | 37.5% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 27.8% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | 60.0% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 25.0% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 18.2% | 33.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.