Michigan State’s third-down conversion rate with Alessio Milivojevic and since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 1.5 percentage points over with Alessio Milivojevic and 15.5 percentage points under since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.9% and 18.2%, a difference of 22.8%. All 5 home games were with Alessio Milivojevic. All 5 unranked opponents were with Alessio Milivojevic. All 3 nonconference games were with Alessio Milivojevic.
Alessio Milivojevic, quarterback: 1,263 passing yards, 185 pass attempts and 121 completions in 7 games this season.
One game since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Alessio Milivojevic
+1.5%
since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game
−15.5%
0%20%
plain
40.9%
18.2%
20%40%60%
The games
with Alessio Milivojevicsince Alessio Milivojevic’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 33.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 66.7% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 36.4% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | 37.5% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 27.8% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | 60.0% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 25.0% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 18.2% | 33.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.