Michigan State’s points of margin with Jaziun Patterson and since Jaziun Patterson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 1.3 points under with Jaziun Patterson and 0.8 points under since Jaziun Patterson’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -4.1 and -18.0, a difference of 13.9. Expected was 14.4 points higher with Jaziun Patterson than since Jaziun Patterson’s last game. All 5 home games were with Jaziun Patterson. All 5 unranked opponents were with Jaziun Patterson. All 3 nonconference games were with Jaziun Patterson.
Jaziun Patterson, running back: 327 rushing yards, 76 carries and 7 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game since Jaziun Patterson’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jaziun Patterson
−1.3
since Jaziun Patterson’s last game
−0.8
-10010
plain
-4.1
-18.0
-20020
The games
with Jaziun Pattersonsince Jaziun Patterson’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Michigan | L | -7 | -17.8 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Indiana | L | -37 | -18.7 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Illinois | L | -22 | -11.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs Purdue | W | 7 | 17.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Rutgers | L | -27 | -1.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 17 | 5.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 2 | 14.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ USC | L | -14 | -19.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | -11 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UCLA | L | -25 | 11.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Indiana | L | -25 | -37.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsMichigan | L | -11 | -8.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | -3 | -1.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | -18 | -8.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | -3 | -22.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Maryland (neutral) | W | 10 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 10 | 9.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 28 | 19.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | -17 | -27.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNebraska | L | -18 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | -28 | -8.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | -1 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | -3 | -10.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCLA | L | -18 | -17.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jaziun Patterson nor since Jaziun Patterson’s last game: Jaziun Patterson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.