Michigan State’s points of margin with Brandon Tullis and without Brandon Tullis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 2.9 points under with Brandon Tullis and 10.3 points over without Brandon Tullis in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -4.3 and -17.0, a difference of 12.7. Expected was 26.0 points higher with Brandon Tullis than without Brandon Tullis. All 5 home games were with Brandon Tullis. All 7 day games were with Brandon Tullis. All 5 unranked opponents were with Brandon Tullis.
Brandon Tullis, running back: 53 rushing yards, 11 carries and 1 reception in 4 games this season.
One game without Brandon Tullis is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Brandon Tullis
−2.9
without Brandon Tullis
+10.3
-10010
plain
-4.3
-17.0
-20020
The games
with Brandon Tulliswithout Brandon Tullis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 10 | 9.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 28 | 17.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | -17 | -27.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | -18 | -3.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | -28 | -8.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | -1 | 1.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | -3 | -9.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -18 | -16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.