Michigan State’s points allowed with Cam Edwards and since Cam Edwards’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 4.6 points under with Cam Edwards and 4.3 points over since Cam Edwards’ last game over its last 25 games, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 21.3 and 30.3, a difference of 9.0. All 3 nonconference games were with Cam Edwards.
Cam Edwards, running back: 304 rushing yards, 64 carries and 4 receptions in 4 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Cam Edwards
−4.6
since Cam Edwards’ last game
+4.3
-10010
A −9.0 difference in points allowed over expected with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.3
30.3
102030
A −9.0 difference in points allowed with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Cam Edwards and it comes up 20 times in 100.
The games
with Cam Edwardssince Cam Edwards’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Michigan | L | 24 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Indiana | L | 47 | 33.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Illinois | L | 38 | 28.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs Purdue | W | 17 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Rutgers | L | 41 | 25.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 6 | 21.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 40 | 19.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ USC | L | 45 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 38 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UCLA | L | 38 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Indiana | L | 38 | 45.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsMichigan | L | 31 | 31.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 23 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | 28 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 20 | 35.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Maryland (neutral) | W | 28 | 24.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 20 | 24.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 7 | 17.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 27 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNebraska | L | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 31 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | 38 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 24 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCLA | L | 28 | 29.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Cam Edwards nor since Cam Edwards’ last game: Cam Edwards had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.