Michigan State’s points allowed with Alessio Milivojevic and since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 0.1 points over with Alessio Milivojevic and 1.7 points under since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 25.4 and 28.0, a difference of 2.6. Expected was 4.3 points lower with Alessio Milivojevic than since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game. All 5 home games were with Alessio Milivojevic. All 5 unranked opponents were with Alessio Milivojevic. All 3 nonconference games were with Alessio Milivojevic.
Alessio Milivojevic, quarterback: 1,263 passing yards, 185 pass attempts and 121 completions in 7 games this season.
One game since Alessio Milivojevic’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 20 | 24.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 7 | 17.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 27 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 31 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | 38 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 24 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 28 | 29.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.