Michigan State’s carries with Cam Edwards and since Cam Edwards’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 4.0 carries over with Cam Edwards and 4.2 carries under since Cam Edwards’ last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 38.0 and 31.8, a difference of 6.3. All 3 nonconference games were with Cam Edwards. All 4 first-half games were with Cam Edwards. All 4 second-half games were since Cam Edwards’ last game.
Cam Edwards, running back: 304 rushing yards, 64 carries and 4 receptions in 4 games this season, 42% of Michigan State’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +8.2 difference in carries over expected with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Cam Edwards and it comes up 14 times in 100.
A +6.3 difference in carries with Cam Edwards vs since Cam Edwards’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 48 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 45 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 27 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Nebraska | L | 32 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 45 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | 27 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 27 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 28 | 36.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.