Michigan State’s carries with Brandon Tullis and without Brandon Tullis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan State was 0.3 carries under with Brandon Tullis and 1.6 carries under without Brandon Tullis over its last 25 games, 18 games against 6. The plain averages are 33.4 and 31.0, a difference of 2.4.
Brandon Tullis, running back: 354 rushing yards, 80 carries and 12 receptions in 16 of those 25 games, 15% of Michigan State’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Brandon Tullis
−0.3
without Brandon Tullis
−1.6
-10010
A +1.2 difference in carries over expected with Brandon Tullis vs without Brandon Tullis is about what you’d expect.
plain
33.4
31.0
3040
A +2.4 difference in carries with Brandon Tullis vs without Brandon Tullis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Brandon Tulliswithout Brandon Tullis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Michigan | L | 41 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Indiana | L | 32 | 31.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Illinois | L | 27 | 33.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs Purdue | W | 36 | 36.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Rutgers | L | 23 | 32.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 41 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 35 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ USC | L | 32 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 37 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UCLA | L | 25 | 35.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Indiana | L | 24 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsMichigan | L | 38 | 31.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 41 | 30.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | 22 | 34.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 27 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Maryland (neutral) | W | 28 | 38.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Toledo | W | 48 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 45 | 33.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 27 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNebraska | L | 32 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Wisconsin | L | 45 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | 27 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Northwestern | L | 27 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCLA | L | 28 | 36.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.