Marshall’s third-down conversion rate with Zion Turner and without Zion Turner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 4.1 percentage points under with Zion Turner and 0.8 percentage points under without Zion Turner over its last 25 games, 4 games against 14. The plain averages are 37.1% and 35.1%, a difference of 2.0%. Expected was 4.8 percentage points higher with Zion Turner than without Zion Turner. All 10 away games were without Zion Turner. Both ranked opponents were without Zion Turner. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Zion Turner.
Zion Turner, quarterback: 1,017 passing yards, 151 pass attempts and 98 completions in 11 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −3.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Zion Turner vs without Zion Turner is about what you’d expect.
A +2.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Zion Turner vs without Zion Turner is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 37.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 38.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ James Madison | W | 33.3% | 37.1% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 53.3% | 40.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 20.0% | 31.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 20.0% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 33.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 42.9% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsOld Dominion | W | 26.7% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 42.9% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 37.5% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 35.3% | 30.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 33.3% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 41.7% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 9.1% | 33.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Missouri State | W | 53.8% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 50.0% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 60.0% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 38.5% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 14.3% | 38.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Kentucky, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Zion Turner nor without Zion Turner: Zion Turner had no game for the team that season, and sit out.