Marshall’s third-down conversion rate with Jo'Shon Barbie and without Jo'Shon Barbie
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 3.3 percentage points under with Jo'Shon Barbie and 4.9 percentage points over without Jo'Shon Barbie over its last 25 games, 14 games against 4. The plain averages are 34.0% and 41.6%, a difference of 7.6%. Both ranked opponents were with Jo'Shon Barbie. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jo'Shon Barbie.
Jo'Shon Barbie, running back: 501 rushing yards, 112 carries and 13 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jo'Shon Barbie
−3.3%
without Jo'Shon Barbie
+4.9%
-20%0%20%
A −8.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jo'Shon Barbie vs without Jo'Shon Barbie is about what you’d expect.
plain
34.0%
41.6%
20%40%60%
A −7.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jo'Shon Barbie vs without Jo'Shon Barbie is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jo'Shon Barbiewithout Jo'Shon Barbie
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 37.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 38.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ James Madison | W | 33.3% | 37.1% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 53.3% | 40.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 20.0% | 31.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 20.0% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 33.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 42.9% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsOld Dominion | W | 26.7% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 42.9% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 37.5% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 35.3% | 30.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 33.3% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 41.7% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 9.1% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Missouri State | W | 53.8% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 50.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 60.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 38.5% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 14.3% | 38.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Kentucky, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Jo'Shon Barbie nor without Jo'Shon Barbie: Jo'Shon Barbie had no game for the team that season, and sit out.