Marshall’s third-down conversion rate with Jo'Shon Barbie and without Jo'Shon Barbie
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 1.0 percentage points under with Jo'Shon Barbie and 3.3 percentage points under without Jo'Shon Barbie in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.1% and 38.5%, a difference of 3.4%. Expected was 4.1 percentage points lower with Jo'Shon Barbie than without Jo'Shon Barbie. All 4 away games were with Jo'Shon Barbie. All 5 day games were with Jo'Shon Barbie. All 4 nonconference games were with Jo'Shon Barbie.
Jo'Shon Barbie, running back: 252 rushing yards, 56 carries and 8 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Jo'Shon Barbie is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jo'Shon Barbie
−1.0%
without Jo'Shon Barbie
−3.3%
-20%0%20%
plain
35.1%
38.5%
20%40%60%
The games
with Jo'Shon Barbiewithout Jo'Shon Barbie
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 9.1% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri State | W | 53.8% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 50.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 60.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 38.5% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 14.3% | 38.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Gardner-Webb has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.