Marshall’s third-down conversion rate with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 0.6 percentage points over with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and 5.8 percentage points under without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson over its last 25 games, 12 games against 6. The plain averages are 36.3% and 33.6%, a difference of 2.7%. Expected was 2.9 percentage points lower with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson than without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, quarterback: 3,123 passing yards, 404 pass attempts and 263 completions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +6.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is about what you’d expect.
A +2.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 37.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 38.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ James Madison | W | 33.3% | 37.1% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 53.3% | 40.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 20.0% | 31.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 20.0% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 33.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 42.9% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsOld Dominion | W | 26.7% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 42.9% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 37.5% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 35.3% | 30.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 33.3% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 41.7% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 9.1% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Missouri State | W | 53.8% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 50.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 60.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 38.5% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 14.3% | 38.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Kentucky, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson nor without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.