Marshall’s third-down conversion rate with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 5.1 percentage points under with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and 3.8 percentage points over without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 30.4% and 43.9%, a difference of 13.5%. All 4 away games were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. All 3 night games were without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. All 5 day games were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, quarterback: 1,080 passing yards, 148 pass attempts and 92 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −8.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is about what you’d expect.
A −13.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 9.1% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri State | W | 53.8% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 50.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 60.0% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 38.5% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 14.3% | 38.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Gardner-Webb has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.