Marshall’s points with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 4.5 points over with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and 9.4 points under without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson over its last 25 games, 12 games against 6. The plain averages are 31.6 and 19.2, a difference of 12.4. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, quarterback: 3,123 passing yards, 404 pass attempts and 263 completions in 18 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
A +13.9 difference in points over expected with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is unusual: shuffle which games were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A +12.4 difference in points with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is unusual: shuffle which games were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 37 | 38.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 31 | 35.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Old Dominion | W | 42 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ James Madison | W | 35 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 31 | 27.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 7 | 15.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 20 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 42 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 51 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsOld Dominion | W | 48 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 40 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 27 | 35.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 30 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 24 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 19 | 37.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 0 | 15.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 28 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Missouri State | W | 30 | 26.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 36 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 17 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 21 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 20 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 36 | 19.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Kentucky, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson nor without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.