Marshall’s pass attempts with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 1.2 pass attempts under with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and 2.1 pass attempts over without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 32.4 and 31.0, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 3.1 pass attempts higher with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson than without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. All 4 away games were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. All 3 night games were without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. All 5 day games were with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, quarterback: 1,080 passing yards, 148 pass attempts and 92 completions in 7 games this season, 67% of Marshall’s pass attempts in those games.
3 games without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −3.3 difference in pass attempts over expected with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is about what you’d expect.
A +1.4 difference in pass attempts with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson vs without Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 28 | 29.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 23 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri State | W | 26 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 39 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 51 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 37 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 33 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 18 | 32.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Gardner-Webb has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.