Marshall’s pass attempts in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 1.6 pass attempts over in a conference game and 6.3 pass attempts under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 30.8 and 24.6, a difference of 6.2. Both ranked opponents were in a nonconference game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game. All 5 of Charles Huff’s games were in a conference game.
Marshall’s +7.8 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 4th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +7.8 difference in pass attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A +6.2 difference in pass attempts in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Southern Miss | W | 25 | 25.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 31 | 24.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Old Dominion | W | 24 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ James Madison | W | 25 | 30.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | @ Louisiana | W | 26 | 29.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 21 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 24 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 22 | 31.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Louisiana | L | 31 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsOld Dominion | W | 26 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 33 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | @Coastal Carolina | L | 36 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsJames Madison | L | 36 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 27 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 30 | 32.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 35 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 28 | 29.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 23 | 27.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Missouri State | W | 26 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 39 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @James Madison | L | 51 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsCoastal Carolina | L | 37 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 33 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 18 | 32.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Kentucky, Gardner-Webb have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.