Marshall’s carries with Zion Turner and without Zion Turner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Marshall was 0.2 carries over with Zion Turner and 0.8 carries over without Zion Turner in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 36.5 and 36.5, a difference of 0.0. Expected was 0.3 carries higher with Zion Turner than without Zion Turner. All 4 away games were without Zion Turner. All 5 day games were without Zion Turner. All 4 nonconference games were without Zion Turner.
Zion Turner, quarterback: 608 passing yards, 92 pass attempts and 58 completions in 6 games this season, 12% of Marshall’s carries in those games.
2 games with Zion Turner is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −0.6 difference in carries over expected with Zion Turner vs without Zion Turner is about what you’d expect.
A 0.0 difference in carries with Zion Turner vs without Zion Turner is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 26 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 35 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Missouri State | W | 41 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 35 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ James Madison | L | 30 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Coastal Carolina | L | 41 | 38.4 | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | vs South Alabama | W | 32 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 52 | 37.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Gardner-Webb has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.