Louisville’s third-down conversion rate with Keyjuan Brown and without Keyjuan Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisville was 3.6 percentage points over with Keyjuan Brown and 1.8 percentage points over without Keyjuan Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 47.3% and 44.4%, a difference of 2.9%. Both away games were with Keyjuan Brown. All 4 day games were with Keyjuan Brown. Both ranked opponents were with Keyjuan Brown.
Keyjuan Brown, running back: 467 rushing yards, 58 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Keyjuan Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Keyjuan Brown
+3.6%
without Keyjuan Brown
+1.8%
-5%0%5%
plain
47.3%
44.4%
30%40%50%60%
The games
with Keyjuan Brownwithout Keyjuan Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 43.8% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Villanova | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 30.0% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 50.0% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 44.4% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 44.4% | 42.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 46.2% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 54.5% | 46.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Villanova has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.