Louisville’s points of margin with Keyjuan Brown and without Keyjuan Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisville was 1.2 points under with Keyjuan Brown and 20.3 points over without Keyjuan Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 11.9 and 24.0, a difference of 12.1. Both away games were with Keyjuan Brown. All 4 day games were with Keyjuan Brown. Both ranked opponents were with Keyjuan Brown.
Keyjuan Brown, running back: 467 rushing yards, 58 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Keyjuan Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Keyjuan Brown
−1.2
without Keyjuan Brown
+20.3
-1001020
plain
11.9
24.0
02040
The games
with Keyjuan Brownwithout Keyjuan Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | -3 | -12.8 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Villanova | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 10 | 9.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -3 | -2.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ NC State | L | -3 | 16.2 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 24 | 3.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 8 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 28 | 24.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Villanova has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.