Louisville’s carries with Keyjuan Brown and without Keyjuan Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisville was 0.5 carries under with Keyjuan Brown and 3.4 carries over without Keyjuan Brown over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 32.7 and 36.8, a difference of 4.1. All 4 ranked opponents were with Keyjuan Brown. Both top-10 opponents were with Keyjuan Brown. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Keyjuan Brown.
Keyjuan Brown, running back: 1,253 rushing yards, 172 carries and 15 receptions in 20 of those 25 games, 26% of Louisville’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A −3.9 difference in carries over expected with Keyjuan Brown vs without Keyjuan Brown is about what you’d expect.
A −4.1 difference in carries with Keyjuan Brown vs without Keyjuan Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Stanford | L | 26 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 43 | 33.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Kentucky | W | 51 | 31.0 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Washington (neutral) | W | 32 | 33.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 30 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 29 | 34.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Pittsburgh | W | 33 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 27 | 33.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | W | 28 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Boston College | W | 29 | 36.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 33 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs California | L | 30 | 34.8 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 30 | 30.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 29 | 35.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsKentucky | W | 50 | 32.0 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Toledo (neutral) | W | 34 | 34.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 38 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Villanova | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSMU | W | 33 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 38 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 24 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 40 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 33 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsStanford | W | 31 | 37.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Kentucky, Villanova have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.