Louisville’s carries with Keyjuan Brown and without Keyjuan Brown
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisville was 1.5 carries under with Keyjuan Brown and 5.4 carries over without Keyjuan Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.6 and 40.0, a difference of 6.4. Both away games were with Keyjuan Brown. All 4 day games were with Keyjuan Brown. Both ranked opponents were with Keyjuan Brown.
Keyjuan Brown, running back: 467 rushing yards, 58 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season, 25% of Louisville’s carries in those games.
One game without Keyjuan Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Keyjuan Brown
−1.5
without Keyjuan Brown
+5.4
-10-505
plain
33.6
40.0
25303540
The games
with Keyjuan Brownwithout Keyjuan Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | L | 38 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Villanova | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 33 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 38 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 24 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 40 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 33 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Stanford | W | 31 | 37.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Villanova has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.