Louisiana Tech’s third-down conversion rate in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana Tech was 5.7 percentage points over in a conference game and 12.5 percentage points under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 14 games against 9. The plain averages are 45.6% and 30.7%, a difference of 14.9%. Both neutral-site games were in a nonconference game. All 3 ranked opponents were in a nonconference game. Both top-10 opponents were in a nonconference game.
Louisiana Tech’s +18.2% in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +18.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up once in 100.
A +14.9% difference in third-down conversion rate in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | W | 18.2% | 43.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arkansas | L | 21.1% | 34.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 46.2% | 39.2% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Army (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 40.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 23.1% | 36.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Mexico State | W | 57.9% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | W | 15.4% | 48.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 28.6% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @Kennesaw State | L | 47.1% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 52.6% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 66.7% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Delaware | L | 36.4% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 27.3% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 56.3% | 44.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 61.5% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 30, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina (neutral) | W | 25.0% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northwestern State | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @LSU | L | 21.4% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 43.8% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArmy | W | 40.0% | 48.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Louisiana | W | 53.8% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 35.7% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Old Dominion | W | 57.9% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ South Alabama | W | 20.0% | 44.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana, Northwestern State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.