Kent State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kent State was 0.9 points under at home and 8.0 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 26.8 and 4.4, a difference of 22.4. Both night games were away.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.9
away
−8.0
-10010
A +7.1 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
26.8
4.4
0102030
A +22.4 difference in points at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 0 | 12.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Wofford | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 3 | 6.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 26 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio | L | 10 | 22.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | 7 | 13.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 2 | 11.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 35 | 24.5 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @SSacramento State | L | 10 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wofford, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.