Kent State’s points allowed in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Kent State’s game on Oct 30, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kent State was 2.7 points under in a conference game and 13.1 points over in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 6. The plain averages are 28.5 and 43.6, a difference of 15.1. All 4 ranked opponents were in a nonconference game. All 3 top-10 opponents were in a nonconference game. All 4 of Kenni Burns’ games were in a conference game.
Kent State’s −15.8 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 134th of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 30, 2026.
points allowed a game over expected
A −15.8 difference in points allowed over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −15.1 difference in points allowed in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2024 | vs Ohio | L | 41 | 40.0 | |
| Nov 13, 2024 | @ Miami (OH) | L | 34 | 40.4 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Akron | L | 38 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | 43 | 41.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsMMerrimack | W | 17 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 62 | 48.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsBuffalo | L | 31 | 27.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Florida State | L | 66 | 40.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 44 | 42.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 6 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 45 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Bowling Green | W | 21 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | @ Ball State | L | 17 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | @Akron | W | 35 | 28.6 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 28 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 31 | 28.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 57 | 42.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Wofford | W | 15 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 59 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsBall State | W | 13 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsOhio | L | 13 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | 38 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ South Florida | L | 29 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 20 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @SSacramento State | L | 31 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Merrimack, Wofford, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 30.