Putting Up Numbers· college football

Kansas’ total yards with Cole Ballard and without Cole Ballard

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 127.0 yards over with Cole Ballard and 9.1 yards over without Cole Ballard over its last 25 games, 1 game against 22. The plain averages are 451.0 and 418.7, a difference of 32.3. Expected was 67.1 yards lower with Cole Ballard than without Cole Ballard. All 11 home games were without Cole Ballard. All 3 neutral-site games were without Cole Ballard. All 4 night games were without Cole Ballard.

Cole Ballard, quarterback: 489 passing yards, 65 pass attempts and 35 completions in 12 of those 25 games.

One game with Cole Ballard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Cole Ballardwithout Cole Ballard
Kansas’ games, last 25 games, each marked with Cole Ballard or without Cole Ballard
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Oct 26, 2024@Kansas StateL401404.1
Nov 9, 2024vsIowa State (neutral)W535373.6
Nov 16, 2024@BYUW249387.0
Nov 23, 2024vsColorado (neutral)W522364.3
Nov 30, 2024@BaylorL491434.5
Aug 23, 2025vsFresno StateW386359.2
Aug 29, 2025vsWWagnerW631—
Sep 6, 2025@MissouriL254304.1
Sep 20, 2025vsWest VirginiaW405433.8
Sep 27, 2025vsCincinnatiL597406.8
Oct 4, 2025@UCFW358364.8
Oct 11, 2025@Texas TechL319283.4
Oct 25, 2025vsKansas StateL258426.2
Nov 1, 2025vsOklahoma StateW344434.2
Nov 8, 2025@ArizonaL369322.3
Nov 22, 2025@Iowa StateL323396.8
Nov 28, 2025vsUtahL477374.3
Sep 4, 2026vsLLong Island UniversityW613—
Sep 11, 2026vsMissouriL255427.1
Sep 19, 2026vsArizona State (neutral)L414415.6
Oct 3, 2026vsMiddle TennesseeW708426.9
Oct 10, 2026@UtahL391397.8
Oct 17, 2026@Kansas StateL319427.8
Oct 24, 2026vsBaylorW429437.9
Oct 31, 2026@TCUL451324.0

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
  • Wagner, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.