Kansas’ third-down conversion rate with Yasin Willis and since Yasin Willis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 9.3 percentage points under with Yasin Willis and 0.9 percentage points under since Yasin Willis’ last game over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 39.7% and 35.5%, a difference of 4.1%. All 3 away games were since Yasin Willis’ last game.
Yasin Willis, running back: 125 rushing yards, 27 carries and 3 receptions in 3 of those 25 games.
3 games with Yasin Willis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −8.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Yasin Willis vs since Yasin Willis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +4.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Yasin Willis vs since Yasin Willis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | 61.5% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | W | 53.8% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ BYU | W | 33.3% | 46.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 64.3% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 45.5% | 42.5% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Fresno State | W | 20.0% | 43.1% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 27.3% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 35.7% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 37.5% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCF | W | 27.3% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 35.3% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsKansas State | L | 37.5% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 60.0% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 35.3% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Iowa State | L | 55.6% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 53.3% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | 20.0% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Utah | L | 30.8% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Kansas State | L | 27.3% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 26.3% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 35.0% | 34.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Yasin Willis nor since Yasin Willis’ last game: Yasin Willis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.