Kansas’ third-down conversion rate with Isaiah Marshall and without Isaiah Marshall
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 4.1 percentage points under with Isaiah Marshall and 0.2 percentage points under without Isaiah Marshall over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 37.4% and 38.4%, a difference of 1.1%. All 3 night games were without Isaiah Marshall.
Isaiah Marshall, quarterback: 1,534 passing yards, 199 pass attempts and 108 completions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −3.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Isaiah Marshall vs without Isaiah Marshall is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Isaiah Marshall and it comes up 12 times in 100.
A −1.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Isaiah Marshall vs without Isaiah Marshall is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | 61.5% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | W | 53.8% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ BYU | W | 33.3% | 46.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 64.3% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 45.5% | 42.5% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Fresno State | W | 20.0% | 43.1% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 27.3% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 35.7% | 39.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 37.5% | 43.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCF | W | 27.3% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 35.3% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsKansas State | L | 37.5% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 60.0% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 35.3% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Iowa State | L | 55.6% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 53.3% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | 20.0% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Utah | L | 30.8% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Kansas State | L | 27.3% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 26.3% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 35.0% | 34.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Isaiah Marshall nor without Isaiah Marshall: Isaiah Marshall had no game for the team that season, and sit out.