Kansas’ third-down conversion rate with Cole Ballard and without Cole Ballard
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 0.9 percentage points over with Cole Ballard and 4.1 percentage points under without Cole Ballard in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 35.0% and 37.4%, a difference of 2.4%. Expected was 3.3 percentage points lower with Cole Ballard than without Cole Ballard. All 4 home games were without Cole Ballard. Both ranked opponents were without Cole Ballard. All 3 nonconference games were without Cole Ballard.
Cole Ballard, quarterback: 381 passing yards, 43 pass attempts and 25 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Cole Ballard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Cole Ballard
+0.9%
without Cole Ballard
−4.1%
-20%0%20%
plain
35.0%
37.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with Cole Ballardwithout Cole Ballard
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Missouri | L | 20.0% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 37.5% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 30.8% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | 27.3% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Baylor | W | 26.3% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | 35.0% | 34.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.