Kansas’ points of margin with Yasin Willis and since Yasin Willis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 14.5 points under with Yasin Willis and 5.9 points over since Yasin Willis’ last game over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 7.0 and 4.4, a difference of 2.6. Expected was 4.0 points higher with Yasin Willis than since Yasin Willis’ last game. All 3 away games were since Yasin Willis’ last game.
Yasin Willis, running back: 125 rushing yards, 27 carries and 3 receptions in 3 of those 25 games.
3 games with Yasin Willis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −20.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Yasin Willis vs since Yasin Willis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +2.6 difference in points of margin with Yasin Willis vs since Yasin Willis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | -2 | -3.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | W | 9 | -4.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ BYU | W | 4 | -8.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 16 | -7.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | -28 | 1.7 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Fresno State | W | 24 | 6.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | -11 | -9.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 31 | 6.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | -3 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCF | W | 7 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | -25 | -24.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsKansas State | L | -25 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 17 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | -4 | -11.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Iowa State | L | -24 | -2.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Utah | L | -10 | -16.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | -17 | -5.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | -7 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 55 | 12.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Utah | L | -17 | -15.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Kansas State | L | -11 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 1 | -6.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | -6 | -3.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Yasin Willis nor since Yasin Willis’ last game: Yasin Willis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.