Kansas’ points of margin with Mason Ellis and without Mason Ellis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 1.5 points over with Mason Ellis and 0.0 points under without Mason Ellis over its last 25 games, 12 games against 11. The plain averages are 7.8 and -4.6, a difference of 12.4. Both top-10 opponents were without Mason Ellis. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Mason Ellis. All 6 nonconference games were with Mason Ellis.
Mason Ellis, defender: 10 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Mason Ellis
+1.5
without Mason Ellis
−0.0
-2002040
A +1.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Mason Ellis vs without Mason Ellis is about what you’d expect.
plain
7.8
-4.6
050
A +12.4 difference in points of margin with Mason Ellis vs without Mason Ellis is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Mason Ellis and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
with Mason Elliswithout Mason Ellis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | -2 | -3.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | W | 9 | -4.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ BYU | W | 4 | -8.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 16 | -7.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | -28 | 1.7 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vs Fresno State | W | 24 | 6.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | -11 | -9.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 31 | 6.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | -3 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCF | W | 7 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | -25 | -24.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsKansas State | L | -25 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 17 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | -4 | -11.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Iowa State | L | -24 | -2.9 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Utah | L | -10 | -16.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vsMissouri | L | -17 | -5.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | -7 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 55 | 12.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Utah | L | -17 | -15.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Kansas State | L | -11 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBaylor | W | 1 | -6.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | -6 | -3.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Long Island University have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.