Kansas’ points of margin with Mason Ellis and since Mason Ellis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas was 0.8 points under with Mason Ellis and 2.1 points over since Mason Ellis’ last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 8.0 and -2.5, a difference of 10.5. Both ranked opponents were with Mason Ellis. All 3 nonconference games were with Mason Ellis. All 4 first-half games were with Mason Ellis.
Mason Ellis, defender: 4 games this season.
2 games since Mason Ellis’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −2.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Mason Ellis vs since Mason Ellis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +10.5 difference in points of margin with Mason Ellis vs since Mason Ellis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vsLLong Island University | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Missouri | L | -17 | -5.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | -7 | 10.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Middle Tennessee | W | 55 | 12.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Utah | L | -17 | -15.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Kansas State | L | -11 | 5.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Baylor | W | 1 | -6.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ TCU | L | -6 | -3.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Long Island University has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.